Robots have been used to replace human workers in doing repetitive, physical jobs since the mid-1900s. General Motors installed the first ever industrial robot, Unimate, in 1961. Older than you thought, right?
It's easy to understand how these single-task robots will dominate industries such as car manufacturing. One startup even made a boba-serving robot! Jobs where you need to do the same action over and over, such as screwing on car rims, are prime targets for automation. The robots needed to be programmed to have one function and nothing else.
To understand the impact of automation on workers, we'll have to dip our toes into economics. The "simple" robots both helped and hurt different types of workers. Because they replaced humans in repetitive jobs like welding, unskilled workers were left without jobs. More highly skilled workers with credentials could work in tandem with the robots, boosting their careers. White-collar workers such as engineers now had more to design and build, greatly expanding that field. Corporation owners could manufacture more products for less, making them richer.
How does AI factor into this?
In short, the introduction of robots is linked to income inequality. Considering this bleak outcome, will implementing artificial intelligence in the industries lead to the same shift in labor?
Yes and no. Since AI exploded in the last decade, the big question has been whether AI will take job positions from people in many more fields due to its larger applications and higher potential. It won't be just the monotonous jobs being replaced anymore.
In the past, technological change has been slow enough that people could change their jobs fast enough to keep up. However, with how fast AI is being developed, researchers are fearing a future Great Depression-like situation. According to research group Brookings, if AI automation ever replaces 38% of jobs, countries will likely work resort to authoritarian laws to control the economy.
Although we don't know for sure, it's safe to assume that soon, AI will take the vast majority of telemarketing, long-distance truck driving, retail, customer service, accounting, and practically any job that doesn't require much creative thinking.
The current human workforce in these positions is predicted to decline as AI gets more capable and advanced. These displaced workers need somewhere to go, so they'll need to find a new job. This trend will lead to the workers retraining and becoming more skilled to adapt to the changing job environment.
How can we upskill the workforce?
At this point, we run into a problem. There are millions and millions of workers that need to be retrained to get jobs outside of AI's reach, and there aren't that many spots available in universities and trade schools.
According to Gabe Dalporto, CEO of online learning company Udacity, "A billion people will lose their jobs over the next 10 years due to AI", and "if you tried to reskill a billion people in the university system, you would break the university system." There clearly is a need to train large amounts of people in a short time using unconventional methods.
The COVID-19 pandemic showed us just that. With nearly all schools operating virtually and work becoming remote when possible, the pandemic demonstrated that learning and productivity can happen without face-to-face contact and close proximity. We can apply the same principle to retraining: have workers complete online courses to get credentials and learn how to work with or engineer AI.
The good thing is that the new jobs AI will create are less dangerous and taxing for people to do. In the past, robots helped prevent more people from working in dangerous factory jobs. Now, AI can be applied to fields like telemarketing, proofreading, data entry, and hospitality. Although these jobs aren't dangerous, they're mentally exhausting. The future job market will require more problem-solving.
In the end, AI likely won't cause as much income inequality as the introduction of automation in the late 20th century, as mass online learning wasn't available then. Instead of a quick replacement of jobs in certain industries, we'll probably see more of a shift in what's taught in schools and how online learning is used. Workers will have different skills than they did in the past, with more emphasis on complementing the work of AI and building AI.
Questions to think about:
With the possibility of wealth inequality, should society push for more AI automation?
In the world of AI, is it more important for schools to teach AI engineering and STEM or artistic subjects that AI can't replace?
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